Thursday, December 30, 2010
Santa Barbara Real Estate Update~ 2010 vs. 2009
For the greater Santa Barbara area including Carpinteria/Summerland, Montecito, Hope Ranch and Goleta, sales of single family residences finished 2010 about 7.6% ahead of where they were in 2009 just nosing over the 900 units sold mark. But, the median sales price was just barely ahead of the ’09 number finishing the year at about $850,000 only $5,000 up from ’09. The average sales price moved a little farther ahead however finishing the year at around $1.46 million up from $1.4 million in ’09. Escrows were also up for the year rising from 869 in ’09 to 922 for ’10 for a 6.1% rise and the median list price on those escrows, just like the sales price was within about $5,000 of the previous year finishing ’10 at $879,000.
After sales declined 6 out of the 7 months from April through October they started back up in November with 69 and December with 88. But, while the numbers of sales went up in December the median sales price went down, dropping from $865,000 in November to $778,500 in December. The numbers of escrows also declined in December from 76 in November to 63 in December. This slowing of sales activities usually occurs because the focus in the last month of the year turns to getting the open escrows closed rather trying to put new escrows together.
Looking at the Districts, Carpinteria/Summerland finished the year 9% ahead of the ’09 rate of sales rising from 73 in that year to 80 in ’10. But, the median sales price declined slightly dropping from $687,500 in ’09 to $675,000 in ’10 for a 2% dip. Montecito also had sales go up in ’10 rising from 143 in ’09 to 153 in ’10 for a 6% gain. But, the median sales price for the area remained basically at the previous year’s level rising slightly from $2.35 million to $2.375 million.
For Santa Barbara’s East Side, sales went up from 236 in ’09 to 244 in ’10 for a 3% rise and the median sales price rose from $885,000 in ’09 to $925,000 in ’10 for a 4.5% rise. But, after moving ahead of the previous year’s pace for most of the year, activity on the East Side looks like it’s slowing with escrows almost at exactly the same level they were at in ’09 and the median list price on those escrows dropping below the $900,000 mark coming in at the same price level as ’09.
Over on the West Side however, sales finished the year substantially ahead of where they were in ’09 rising from 152 to 196 for a 29% boost. The median sales price for the area is also up going from $743,000 in ’09 to $785,000 in ’10 for a 5.7% gain. The numbers of escrows is even farther ahead than the sales finishing the year with 217 up from 166 in ’09 for a 30% gain.
Hope Ranch finished the year almost exactly where it left ’09. There were 19 sales in ’09 and 21 in ‘10 but the median sales price dipped slightly from $2.335 million to $2,212,500 in ’10. The average sales price was way up however going from $3,276,575 in ’09 to $3,888,212 in ’10. This rise was due to some very high priced sales in the area.
Goleta South ended the year with 9.2% more sales activity than the previous year going from 87 sales in ’09 to 95 sales in ’10. The median sales price fell however dipping from $700,000 to $670,000 in ’10 for a 4.3% drop. But, sales in Goleta North dipped from the previous year going from 162 in ’09 to 157 in ’10 for a 3% decline while the median sales price remained exactly where it ended in ’09 at $705,000.
For condos in the greater Santa Barbara area the picture is not quite as rosy as the single family dwelling market. For the final 3 months of 2010 sales declined from 33 in October to 27 in November and down to 25 in December. The median sales price also dropped for those 3 months from $475,000 in October to $425,000 in November and down to $415,000 in December. The numbers of escrows also dropped substantially from November when there were 31 to 19 in December but the median list price on those escrows did come up from just under $400,000 in November to about $459,000 in December
The numbers of condo sales for 2010 were about the same as we experienced in 2009 rising ever so slightly from 319 to 324. But, the median sales price continued to decline dropping from $465,000 in ’09 to $434,000 in ’10 for a 6.7% drop. As the median sales price continues to decline it is getting closer to the ’02 level than it is to the ’03 level unlike single family home median sales price which have remained at almost exactly the same median sales price level we experienced in 2003.
Looking at the districts, Carpinteria/Summerland sales are 26% ahead of where they were in ’09 rising from 52 to 66. The median sales price has dropped however sliding from $430,000 in ’09 to $382,500 in ’10 for an 11% drop. Montecito condo sales finished the year at more than double where they were in ’09 rising from 11 to 26 and the median sales price was also up from $945,000 in the previous year to $1,075,000 in ’10 for an almost 14% rise.
For the East Side of Santa Barbara condo sales were also up from 56 to 67 for a 19% rise, but the median sales price fell from $529,900 in the previous year to $481,500 in ’10 for a 9.1% drop. The party may be over for the East Side however because escrows have dropped about 7% for the year falling from 68 in ’09 to 63 in ’10.
The West Side of Town had sales below the ’09 level dropping from 81 to 80 for a 1.2% decline and the median sales price dropped a little from $503,000 to $495,000 for a 1.6% dip. The numbers of escrows are also very close together for the area so things should remain at about the same level of price and activity.
Goleta South has experienced two rough years in a row. Sales dipped 31% for the area falling from 67 in ’09 which fell significantly from ’08 to 46 in ’10. The median sales price also fell dramatically from $450,500 the previous year to $375,000 in ’10 for almost a 17% decline. Across the freeway in Goleta North sales also fell but not quite as far. For ’10 there were 48 sales compared to 60 in ’09 for a 20% drop. But, the median sales price went up if ever so slightly from $395,000 in ’09 to $397,500 in ’10.
Sales of condos have been slowing through the last quarter of ’10 and at this point it looks like they’re going to continue in that direction. There has been substantial activity in the luxury condo market however with 4 sales over $1 million in December and several more in both October and November. The single family home market has also experienced a surge at the upper level with 5 sales over $5 million in December and 12 sales over $2 million.
The real boost in sales was in the below $1 million market where there were 56 sales up from 38 in the previous month. This rise in that sector is the reason the median sales price for the month tumbled to $778,500. Going into 2011 it look like the single family home market should remain strong with some upward pressure on prices below $1 million. The $1 to $2 million looks unsteady however while the over $2 million market has remained stable.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Santa Barbara Real Estate ~ November 2010
Santa Barbara Real Estate through the end of November‘10 for Montecito, Hope Ranch, Santa Barbara, Goleta, Carpinteria and Summerland
This is an analysis of the Santa Barbara Real Estate market including Carpinteria/Summerland, Montecito, Hope Ranch, downtown Santa Barbara and Goleta through the month of November ’10. Starting with the Home Estate/PUD sector in November, after sales declining for 6 out of the previous 7 months sales went up if ever so slightly from the month of October. The median sales price for the month also went up slightly from October finishing the month of November around $875,000. When you look at the entire year of 2010 the median sales price is right about where it was last year at this time at approximately $855,000 and according to Case-Schiller and Inman that is where it will remain for the next 18 months to 2 years.
Sales for November below $1 million fell markedly to 38 as did the sales from $1 to $2 million dropping to 12. The sales from $2 million and up remained rose however to 16 with only 1 sale over $5 million and that sale taking almost 600 days to complete the buying process.
Looking at the first 11 months of ’10 we see that sales are up from ’09 by about 9% with over 800 sales in ’10. Escrows are also up about 8% for the year with the median list price on those escrows almost exactly where it was last year currently residing at about $880,000. New listings are also up about 8% for the year but the median list price on those new listings fell from approximately $1.2 million last year to just under $1 million this year.
Looking at the Districts, we see that in Carpinteria/Summerland through November ’10, sales are up about 12% from 62 to 70 and the median sales price is almost exactly where it was last year rising from $670,000 in ’09 to $675,000 in ’10. In Montecito, sales are up slightly from 127 last year to 136 this year for a 7% increase and the median sales price is almost exactly where it was last year falling from $2.475 million to $2,425,000.
For the East Side of Santa Barbara, sales are up about 7% going from 205 in ’09 to 222 in ’10. The median sales price is also up slightly from $899,500 last year to $929,500 this year. The West Side has also seen an increase in sales going from 144 last year to 170 this year for an 18% increase and the median sales price has gone up from $750,000 last year to $795,000 this year.
In Hope Ranch, sales are up by 2 from 18 to 20 this year with the median sales price going up from $2,335,000 to $2,375,000 this year. Because of some rather large sales the average sales price in Hope Ranch is way up however from $3,662,361 in ’09 to $3,993,212 in ’10.
For Goleta South, home sales are up from 76 to 86 for a 13% rise but the median sales price has gone up only slightly from $670,000 last year to $672,500 this year. Goleta North sales are up about 5% from 140 to 147 and the median sales price is up from $704,500 to $710,000.
Despite the numbers of sales falling for 6 out of the last 7 months and moving up a little in November we are still about 9% ahead of where we were last year, but the median sales price remains at almost exactly where it was last year at this time.
For the Condo market, sales fell from 33 in October to 26 for November. The median sales price also fell from $475,000 in October to $425,000 in November. The numbers of opened escrows rose to 31 for November up from 26 in October but the median list price on those escrows also stayed the same for both months at just under $400,000.
After being ahead of the ’09 sales pace for most of the year, sales are almost exactly where they were last year with 297 in ’10 compared to 292 in ’09. The numbers of escrows fell however about 6% from ‘09 declining from 324 last year to 311 in ’10. The rest of the numbers including new listings, sales price to original list price ratio and average sales price remain almost exactly where they were at this time last year.
With sales in the mid 20’s for November 2010, 11 of those sales were between $350,000 and $450,000 with 14 sales between $300,000 and $500,000. There were 2 sales above $1 million however but one of those sales took a whopping 925 days to complete.
Looking at the Districts, we see that condo sales in Carpinteria/Summerland are up about 20% going from 47 last year to 56 this year. But, with the numbers of sales up, the median sales price is down from $417,500 last year to $388,850 this year with the average sales price down from $504,602 last year to $434,113 this year. In Montecito, sales are up more than double from 10 to 22, but the median sales price is about where it was last year rising slightly from $1,060,000 last year to $1,062,500 this year with the average sales price falling slightly from $1,151,400 to $1,128,636.
On the East Side of Santa Barbara sales are up by 27% from 51 last year to 65 this year but the median sales price has gone down from $534,450 to $475,000 with the average sales price also falling from $651,124 to $586,747. Condo sales are also up on the West Side of Santa Barbara but not nearly as far as the East Side. In ’09 there were 73 sales on the West Side and this year there have been 74. The median sales price is down slightly however dipping from $505,000 last year to $496,000 this year.
For Goleta South, sales have dropped by 30% from 64 last year to 45 this year with the median sales price also going down from $451,000 last year to $370,000 this year. Sales are also down for Goleta North from 55 last year to 42 this year for a 27% decline with the median sales price going up from $394,000 to $408,500.
Sales for the Condo Markets in the Santa Barbara area are almost exactly where they were last year after being way ahead of the previous year’s numbers for most of the year. Escrows have flattened out for the past 3 months remaining about 6% behind where they were last year and the median sales price while not declining as precipitously as it has been for the previous 2 years is still declining in ’10 down to about $435,000 for the year.
The single family dwelling market despite an increase of about 9% in the numbers of sales and 8% for escrows and new listings is basically where it was last year at this time. The median sales price is almost exactly where it was last year but the average sales price is slightly ahead going up from $1.37 million to $1.465 million. For the foreseeable future it looks like things are going to remain about where they’ve been for the last year for Santa Barbara Real Estate.
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