Thursday, December 30, 2010
Santa Barbara Real Estate Update~ 2010 vs. 2009
For the greater Santa Barbara area including Carpinteria/Summerland, Montecito, Hope Ranch and Goleta, sales of single family residences finished 2010 about 7.6% ahead of where they were in 2009 just nosing over the 900 units sold mark. But, the median sales price was just barely ahead of the ’09 number finishing the year at about $850,000 only $5,000 up from ’09. The average sales price moved a little farther ahead however finishing the year at around $1.46 million up from $1.4 million in ’09. Escrows were also up for the year rising from 869 in ’09 to 922 for ’10 for a 6.1% rise and the median list price on those escrows, just like the sales price was within about $5,000 of the previous year finishing ’10 at $879,000.
After sales declined 6 out of the 7 months from April through October they started back up in November with 69 and December with 88. But, while the numbers of sales went up in December the median sales price went down, dropping from $865,000 in November to $778,500 in December. The numbers of escrows also declined in December from 76 in November to 63 in December. This slowing of sales activities usually occurs because the focus in the last month of the year turns to getting the open escrows closed rather trying to put new escrows together.
Looking at the Districts, Carpinteria/Summerland finished the year 9% ahead of the ’09 rate of sales rising from 73 in that year to 80 in ’10. But, the median sales price declined slightly dropping from $687,500 in ’09 to $675,000 in ’10 for a 2% dip. Montecito also had sales go up in ’10 rising from 143 in ’09 to 153 in ’10 for a 6% gain. But, the median sales price for the area remained basically at the previous year’s level rising slightly from $2.35 million to $2.375 million.
For Santa Barbara’s East Side, sales went up from 236 in ’09 to 244 in ’10 for a 3% rise and the median sales price rose from $885,000 in ’09 to $925,000 in ’10 for a 4.5% rise. But, after moving ahead of the previous year’s pace for most of the year, activity on the East Side looks like it’s slowing with escrows almost at exactly the same level they were at in ’09 and the median list price on those escrows dropping below the $900,000 mark coming in at the same price level as ’09.
Over on the West Side however, sales finished the year substantially ahead of where they were in ’09 rising from 152 to 196 for a 29% boost. The median sales price for the area is also up going from $743,000 in ’09 to $785,000 in ’10 for a 5.7% gain. The numbers of escrows is even farther ahead than the sales finishing the year with 217 up from 166 in ’09 for a 30% gain.
Hope Ranch finished the year almost exactly where it left ’09. There were 19 sales in ’09 and 21 in ‘10 but the median sales price dipped slightly from $2.335 million to $2,212,500 in ’10. The average sales price was way up however going from $3,276,575 in ’09 to $3,888,212 in ’10. This rise was due to some very high priced sales in the area.
Goleta South ended the year with 9.2% more sales activity than the previous year going from 87 sales in ’09 to 95 sales in ’10. The median sales price fell however dipping from $700,000 to $670,000 in ’10 for a 4.3% drop. But, sales in Goleta North dipped from the previous year going from 162 in ’09 to 157 in ’10 for a 3% decline while the median sales price remained exactly where it ended in ’09 at $705,000.
For condos in the greater Santa Barbara area the picture is not quite as rosy as the single family dwelling market. For the final 3 months of 2010 sales declined from 33 in October to 27 in November and down to 25 in December. The median sales price also dropped for those 3 months from $475,000 in October to $425,000 in November and down to $415,000 in December. The numbers of escrows also dropped substantially from November when there were 31 to 19 in December but the median list price on those escrows did come up from just under $400,000 in November to about $459,000 in December
The numbers of condo sales for 2010 were about the same as we experienced in 2009 rising ever so slightly from 319 to 324. But, the median sales price continued to decline dropping from $465,000 in ’09 to $434,000 in ’10 for a 6.7% drop. As the median sales price continues to decline it is getting closer to the ’02 level than it is to the ’03 level unlike single family home median sales price which have remained at almost exactly the same median sales price level we experienced in 2003.
Looking at the districts, Carpinteria/Summerland sales are 26% ahead of where they were in ’09 rising from 52 to 66. The median sales price has dropped however sliding from $430,000 in ’09 to $382,500 in ’10 for an 11% drop. Montecito condo sales finished the year at more than double where they were in ’09 rising from 11 to 26 and the median sales price was also up from $945,000 in the previous year to $1,075,000 in ’10 for an almost 14% rise.
For the East Side of Santa Barbara condo sales were also up from 56 to 67 for a 19% rise, but the median sales price fell from $529,900 in the previous year to $481,500 in ’10 for a 9.1% drop. The party may be over for the East Side however because escrows have dropped about 7% for the year falling from 68 in ’09 to 63 in ’10.
The West Side of Town had sales below the ’09 level dropping from 81 to 80 for a 1.2% decline and the median sales price dropped a little from $503,000 to $495,000 for a 1.6% dip. The numbers of escrows are also very close together for the area so things should remain at about the same level of price and activity.
Goleta South has experienced two rough years in a row. Sales dipped 31% for the area falling from 67 in ’09 which fell significantly from ’08 to 46 in ’10. The median sales price also fell dramatically from $450,500 the previous year to $375,000 in ’10 for almost a 17% decline. Across the freeway in Goleta North sales also fell but not quite as far. For ’10 there were 48 sales compared to 60 in ’09 for a 20% drop. But, the median sales price went up if ever so slightly from $395,000 in ’09 to $397,500 in ’10.
Sales of condos have been slowing through the last quarter of ’10 and at this point it looks like they’re going to continue in that direction. There has been substantial activity in the luxury condo market however with 4 sales over $1 million in December and several more in both October and November. The single family home market has also experienced a surge at the upper level with 5 sales over $5 million in December and 12 sales over $2 million.
The real boost in sales was in the below $1 million market where there were 56 sales up from 38 in the previous month. This rise in that sector is the reason the median sales price for the month tumbled to $778,500. Going into 2011 it look like the single family home market should remain strong with some upward pressure on prices below $1 million. The $1 to $2 million looks unsteady however while the over $2 million market has remained stable.
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